July 2002
Here's the scoop on this graph. Granted it is only for the month of July and therefore is a bit misleading. This graph is plotted from the data at the ADF&G Upper Cook Inlet Website. Here's the way I've got to look at the data given that my fishing time is usually the last two or three weeks of July.
The reds hit the river "early" in July 2002. A big slug of 2nd Run Reds hit the river in the first few days of the month, culminating in a bell-shaped slug of sockeye. The slug peaked at the sonar counter on the 7th, with a count in the 50,000's. As sockeyers go, a 50,000+ day is not one that you want to be on the sidelines for...like I was. Anyways, since that slug of fish made it by without me catching them all - they made a bee-line for the Russian River weir counter. The first burst of reds peaked that counter on the 18th of July. So, in this case it was an 11-day cycle from Soldotna to the Russian River weir.
The second slug of fish started around the 15th in Soldotna, peaking on the 19th with 95,000+ (and I was there). On the Russian side of things, the second slug of fish started on the 22-23rd and peaked on the 26th. The difference in the peaks this time was a 7-day cycle from Soldotna to the Russian. So, there you go guess a good rule of thumb might be 7-11 days for the fish to make the gauntlet. Of course, there's all kinds of other variables to factor into the equation: run strength, water flow, tides, moons, planets, comets, rain, sun....well you get the idea. The model also breaks down the later into the run you get.
July 2003
As far as overall numbers of fish, 2003 was just a ridiculous year. Over the past 10 years, we've been lucky to manage more than one or two days each run of over 50,000 sockeye past the sonar count. This year there were 7 or 8 monster days, including 2 days where we had counts over 100,000 fish. Fun fun fun!!
Reviewing the graphs of the sonar counts versus the RR weir count I make the following interpretation: The major peak of the 2nd run had big sonar counts on the 17th thru the 20th. The major peak of the RR weir count was the 23rd thru the 27th. The time difference between major peaks is approximately 7days (similar to last years low end).
The water conditions definitely differed this year, too. June and July in 2003 were unseasonably hot, and as a result, the water came up as the glaciers that feed the Kenai experienced a big melt off. Therefore, the water was pretty high, fast, and murky for most of the 2nd sockeye run - very similar to the conditions of year 2001 (although that was more due to rainfall than accelerated glacier melt). It seems to me that the years in which the water is higher and faster the sockeye make it to the Russian River quicker (7days) versus the years when the water is lower and slower (11 days). Perhaps the water level influences their swimming speed and their overall hang-out time in Skilak Lake?? Anyways, I'm still going with the 7-11 day rule, modified by the water level and water conditions.
Test Index:
Now this text index indicator that I started tracking this year didn't seem to show a very nice correlation this year. I really had trouble making out any pattern or coherence to its data in relation to the sonar counts on the Kenai. The best I can make out of it is that the big indicator spikes from July 8th-13th probably map to the big sonar counts on the 16th thru 22nd. Of course between the index and the sonar counts are a variety of fish bound for a variety of rivers and a slew of nets in the water. So, regarding this year's July data the indicator points seemed to predict the big slug of fish as coming 8-9days later. My feeling is that this index is best used to gauge a general sense of run strength throughout the entire inlet. Exceptional indicator scores in the 100 -200+ ranges seem to be the thing to look for. Although there is a concentration of scores in the 25-75range. Anyways, take that all with a grain of salt - I'm not totally confident of my analysis, yet. I going to have to track it again this year and see if I can get a better feel for it.
